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Personally I find Monty Hall very counter intuitive. Why would anyone want some stupid car instead of an awesome top-of-the-range goat?
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http://t.co/9kQWypoQ2024/05/03
I’ve heard of this paradox. But I heard it in Derren Brown’s book where he was explaining how people used to use it with stones under cups for money. It was rather an eyebrow-raiser.
I’ve always loved this paradox
why do I ALWAYS get the stupid pink angry cube.
Because you don’t have a Gravatar
I love it, but I hate it. Bit of a paradox really.
Now I’ll have to wikipedia Monty Hall. I call this the xkcd effect
Oh, THAT. I now realise I’ve looked this up before, and it still took my quite some time to wrap my mind around it. Not intuitive at all.
Took me a while to really understand it as well. Then I realized this:
Your first pick is probably wrong (2/3 chance of getting a goat). So the car is probably behind one of the other two doors. Helpfully, the host then eliminates one of the remaining two.
The odds your first pick was right remains at 1/3 because it’s not affected by the host opening another door. The door the host opened has a probability of 0 (duh! it’s a goat, you can see it!). The remaining door has to have the remaining 2/3 probability.
Thanks so much for explaining it that way! I didn’t get it before and now I do!
By the way, the “Me” below me is a different “Me”.
It’s more intuitive when you imagine more extreme case:
100 doors. You pick one, after that the host opens all of them except two (including your pick). Suddenly changing you primary decision does seem like a very good idea.
I said the exact samething when I first heard this.
Goats are awesome.
Wow, I’ve really got to start reading your comic *after* I’ve had my morning coffee =)